It’s that time of the tournament where the calculators come out as qualification permutations start being meted out in earnest. Heading into this game, of the two sides New Zealand are the ones with qualification for the semi-finals still in their hands; wins in their next three and they’ll be on an unassailable nine points – easier said than done, though, as India and England await after their bout with Pakistan.
For Pakistan, things are a little trickier. Not only are they firmly bottom of the table with a solitary point, they also have the worst net run rate. All that said they’re still not mathematically eliminated, though with South Africa and Sri Lanka to follow after New Zealand, three wins in three would be a monumental feat. And even that would not guarantee qualification, with other results needing to go their way.
But for the time being all these sides can do is focus their attention onto matters on the field. Pakistan will know that they haven’t been as bad as results suggest. Yes, their three defeats have been pretty comprehensive, but two were to pre-tournament favourites India and Australia. And against England, it was only rain that halted their push towards a first win.
Fatima Sana has led from the front, picking up nine wickets across the tournament, and in her, Pakistan possess a potent weapon against most top orders – amplified by the fact that batting in Colombo has been at its most perilous in the first half of the innings. And in Sadia Iqbal and Nashra Sandhu they boast a pair of spinners that would challenge any batting line-up.
Their batting, however, has let them down at this World Cup, and it’s here that New Zealand will seek to gain an advantage. New Zealand have shown glimpses of their prowess with both bat and ball across this tournament, but are yet to string it all together. They bundled out Bangladesh cheaply, but failed to consistently challenge batters in their matches against Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka.
On the batting front too, there have been good performances – especially from Sophie Devine – but none that have managed to blow the opposition away. These will be areas they will be desperate to improve on, and a down-on-their-luck Pakistan might be just the opposition they would be eyeing to sharpen their blades.
Fatima Sana has been doing the business with the new ball, but her new ball partner Diana Baig has struggled to hold down the fort at the other end. Baig, to be fair, has had a fairly prolific 2025, picking up 17 wickets so far in 12 WODIs. It is, in fact, the most successful calendar year of her career, but her economy rate has been on the high side – in a series against South Africa last month she conceded 8.83 an over, and even in a dominant performance against England she went at 8.33. With their batting misfiring, Pakistan will know they can ill-afford to leak runs.
Lea Tahuhu took seven wickets across New Zealand’s opening three matches at this World Cup – her only three matches in 2025, in fact – but found herself on the bench against Sri Lanka. That decision was based on Chamari Athapaththu being perceived to have a poor match-up against left-arm seamers like Bree Illing. Pakistan are one of Tahuhu’s favoured opponents, with her economy rate across 11 WODIs against them just 3.70, so expect her to be back in the XI and with a point to prove.
Tahuhu is likely to be back in the XI, having sat out the washed-out match against Sri Lanka on tactical grounds.
New Zealand XI (probable): Suzie Bates, Georgia Plimmer, Amelia Kerr, Sophie Devine (capt), Brooke Halliday, Maddy Green, Isabella Gaze, Jess Kerr, Rosemary Mair, Eden Carson, Lea Tahuhu.
Pakistan haven’t been shy about changing up their XI, particularly their batting order. But considering the washout against England, they might stick to an unchanged side.
Pakistan XI (probable): Omaima Sohail, Muneeba Ali, Sidra Amin, Aliya Riaz Natalia Pervaiz, Sidra Nawaz (wk), Fatima Sana (capt), Rameen Shamim, Diana Baig, Nashra Sandhu, Sadia Iqbal
[Cricinfo]
